Agricultural experts and local officials in parts of Kenya are urging farmers to hold off on planting despite recent scattered showers. Preliminary rains in February have sparked enthusiasm, but authorities warn these are short-lived and unreliable for sustained crop growth.
The caution comes as many regions experience light, intermittent rainfall ahead of the main March–May long rains season.
Advisory focuses on avoiding premature sowing
In Embu County and similar areas, officials stress that current showers risk triggering premature germination. Crops could wilt or fail once the moisture dries up.
County Director for Agriculture Patrick Njeru explained the concern clearly. He noted that these early rains often fool farmers into planting too soon.
Experts from the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) support this view. They highlight potential losses in seeds, fertilizer, and labor if rains subside quickly.
Rainfall patterns remain variable
The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) released its March–April–May (MAM) 2026 outlook earlier this month. It predicts near-average to above-average rainfall in western, central, and Rift Valley areas. Southeastern lowlands and northeastern regions may see near-average to below-average totals.
Onset is expected normal to late in many places. Distribution could be poor to fair, with dry spells possible even during the season. Peak rainfall is forecast for April in most regions, shifting to May along the coast.
Regional forecasts from ICPAC align broadly, indicating wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the Greater Horn of Africa. Kenya shows mixed signals, with drier trends possible in coastal zones.
Impact on farmers and key crops
Maize, beans, and other staple crops dominate planting decisions for smallholders. Early planting in unreliable moisture often leads to poor establishment and higher replanting costs.
In semi-arid and marginal areas, farmers already face pressure from previous erratic seasons. Failed germination deepens food insecurity risks for households.
Livestock keepers in pastoral zones watch closely too. Early pasture growth from spotty rains can mislead planning if follow-up moisture fails.
Preparation and expert guidance
Officials recommend continued land preparation instead of immediate planting. Farmers should clear fields, dig planting holes, and expose soil to sunlight to reduce pathogens.
Water harvesting structures need checking. Drainage systems should stay clear to handle potential heavy downpours later.
Extension services push certified seeds and drought-tolerant varieties. KALRO officers advise consulting local agronomists before sowing.
Outlook and recommended next steps
KMD continues short-term updates as the season approaches. Farmers in highland and western zones may see planting windows open progressively from early to mid-March in some counties.
Those in drier eastern and southeastern areas should wait longer for clearer signals.
The ministry and partners emphasize patience. Aligning planting with established, consistent rainfall maximizes yields and minimizes losses.
Agricultural stakeholders call for close monitoring of weekly forecasts. Timely decisions, guided by official advisories, remain critical for a successful long rains season.
