The New Wave in Kenyan Coffee: From Laikipia’s New Growers to Direct Exports and Ecological Farming

Kenya’s coffee sector is in the middle of a quiet transformation. For decades, the story of Kenyan coffee has been one of missed opportunity—world-class beans, poverty-level earnings for farmers, and a steady decline from the glory days of the 1970s and 1980s when production topped 150,000 metric tons annually . Today, output hovers between 40,000 and 70,000 metric tons, and Kenya has slipped to 20th place among global producers, overtaken by neighbours Ethiopia, Uganda, and Tanzania .

Yet something interesting is happening. Coffee farming is expanding into new areas like semi-arid Laikipia County, where farmers are planting Batian and Ruiru 11 varieties—resilient selections that tolerate drier conditions . At the same time, a wave of regulatory reforms, direct trade relationships, and ecological farming practices are reshaping how coffee is produced, marketed, and valued . Farmers who once considered uprooting their coffee trees for avocados are now reinvesting in their farms, and young people are leasing neglected orchards because they can finally see a future in coffee .

This article explores the most interesting developments in Kenyan coffee today: where it is expanding, how farmers are earning more, and what the future holds for the 800,000 smallholders who produce 80 percent of the country’s coffee .

Coffee Going Where It Has Never Gone Before

Laikipia County: Semi-Arid Land, New Coffee Farmers

Coffee has traditionally been the preserve of the Central Highlands—Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, and Murang’a. But in 2025, a different story is unfolding in Laikipia County, a semi-arid region traditionally reliant on livestock, maize, and wheat .

Between 2022 and June 2025, 23,000 coffee seedlings were distributed across Laikipia wards including Sossian, Githiga, Marmanet, Igwamiti, Ol Moran, and Ngobit. The number of coffee farmers surged from 398 in 2023 to 1,117 in 2025—Githiga Ward alone now records 624 active growers . Ten agricultural extension officers underwent specialised training at the Coffee Research Institute in June 2025 to support the initiative .

What makes this expansion interesting is the variety choice. Farmers are planting Batian and Ruiru 11, selections bred for high yields and resilience—qualities that matter in Laikipia’s drier conditions . Early results are promising. Farmers report that five kilograms of cherry yield one kilogram of parchment, and each of the 600 coffee bushes is earning them an average of Sh800 per season .

Laikipia’s shift to coffee shows the crop is not as geographically limited as many assume. With the right varieties and management, coffee can thrive beyond the traditional highlands, opening up new opportunities for farmers in previously overlooked regions.

The Peri-Urban Land Pressure That Slowed—For Now

In the traditional coffee heartlands around Nairobi, Thika, Kiambu, and Nyeri, a different dynamic has played out. Over the past decade, real estate development has consumed coffee farms, with trees uprooted for housing projects . The trend has slowed in the last two years amid stagnation in the property market, but industry analysts warn this is a temporary reprieve—if coffee prices fall, land conversion could resume . The situation underscores a critical vulnerability: without clear land-use policies protecting arable land, Kenya’s best coffee soils remain at risk.

The Reforms That Are Actually Working

The Direct Settlement System and Coffee Cherry Advance Fund

For years, the biggest complaint from coffee farmers was simple: you work for a year, deliver your cherries, and wait months to be paid—if you are paid at all. Delayed payments, theft, opaque deductions, and cooperative governance failures drove farmers to abandon the crop .

The government has introduced reforms that are changing this. The Direct Settlement System (DSS) directly links producers and buyers at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange, channelling proceeds directly to cooperative accounts controlled by farmers. Payment delays have dropped from months to days . The system ensures farmers receive at least 80 percent of their coffee’s value and has enabled cooperatives to recover loans, reducing indebtedness .

The Coffee Cherry Advance Revolving Fund has also played a role, disbursing more than Sh9.7 billion to farmers in three years. Repayments are nearly complete, which the government points to as proof that farmers are reliable partners when treated fairly .

The Coffee Act 2026: A New Regulatory Framework

In March 2026, the Coffee Act was enacted, shifting regulatory oversight from the Agriculture and Food Authority to the re-established Coffee Board of Kenya . The law also creates an independent Coffee Research and Training Institute, separating it from the broader KALRO structure . The legislation is designed to modernise governance, enhance accountability, and address weaknesses in the cooperative system .

Farmers Are Finally Seeing Better Money

Farm-Gate Prices and What They Mean

The reforms are translating into real income gains. In Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, Murang’a and Kiambu, some cooperatives are earning between Sh155 and Sh156 per kilogramme of cherries delivered to factories .

To put that in perspective: about six kilograms of coffee cherries produce one kilogram of clean (green) coffee. At current auction prices of about $7 (approximately Sh896) per kilogram of clean coffee, this translates to roughly Sh149 per kilogram of cherry . Farmers now have a clearer view of how global prices translate into farmgate earnings, which was not always the case under the old opaque system .

The National Coffee Projections for the 2025/26 coffee year indicate production will rise 13.3 percent to about 850,000 bags, up from 750,000 bags the previous year . For the 2026/27 marketing year, the USDA projects production to rise 12 percent to 950,000 60kg bags, driven by expanded harvested area and improved farm management after two years of favourable prices .

Why Prices Have Been Favorable

Between 2024 and 2026, coffee growers enjoyed two years of favourable prices, giving them the capital to reinvest in their farms. This reinvestment enables more consistent fertiliser application and more effective pest and disease control—which in turn boosts yields . Farms in the Mount Kenya region also benefited from strong flowering after a drought that lasted until March 2026 .

At the Nairobi Coffee Exchange, average prices have eased after sharp gains in the 2024/25 season, reflecting expectations of improved global supply. In April 2026, the average price fell to $268.77 per 50kg bag, down 28.4 percent from $375.24 in October 2025 . But even with this correction, prices remain above the levels that drove farmers out of the sector a decade ago.

Direct Trade: Buyers Bypassing the Auction

Trabocca and the Guaranteed Minimum Return

One of the most interesting developments in Kenyan coffee is the growing role of direct trade. International buyers are increasingly bypassing the traditional auction system to engage directly with cooperatives .

Dutch coffee sourcing company Trabocca began direct purchases from cooperatives in Nyeri and Kirinyaga in 2018. The company introduced a guaranteed minimum return model that insulates farmers from global price volatility and has invested in post-harvest infrastructure . Trabocca’s sourcing lead told media that Kenyan coffee has one of the world’s most unique and distinct profiles, but many farmers do not fully appreciate the commercial value of what they produce .

Trabocca’s founder sees potential for Kenya’s coffee to develop a strong origin identity comparable to premium regions like Champagne in France, where geography and identity strongly influence value . This kind of branding could transform how Kenyan coffee is marketed—moving from a commodity sold by the bag to a premium product sold by story and terroir.

Rockbern and Farmers’ New Bargaining Power

Another sourcing firm, Rockbern, notes that the reforms have not only streamlined processes in favour of farmers but also changed how buyers interact with producers. Farmers now have greater control over when and to whom they sell their coffee . The catch, as Rockbern’s founder points out, is that farmers must elect capable and trustworthy leaders to manage these cooperative systems effectively .

In Embu, Rung’eto Cooperative Chairman Samuel Karanja reported that direct trade has improved both returns and transparency compared to the traditional auction system. Prices are competitive, and there is clearer understanding of milling costs and deductions that farmers previously did not comprehend .

The Export Picture: U.S. Becomes Top Market

Kenya’s exports are rising. The USDA forecasts coffee exports to increase 11.9 percent to 940,000 bags in 2026/27 . Green bean exports remain the backbone—Kenya has yet to establish large-scale soluble coffee processing capacity—but roasted exports are projected at 30,000 bags and soluble at 10,000 bags .

Interestingly, the United States became Kenya’s largest export destination in 2024/25, accounting for 17.2 percent of export volume, followed by Belgium at 15.5 percent and Germany at 12.7 percent . The January 2026 export volume spiked to a record 231,561 bags, reflecting retroactive duty-free market access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and a one-off shipment to Sudan .

Ecological Farming: Evidence That It Works

The Embu Study on Eco-Friendly Practices

A 2025 study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems evaluated eco-friendly coffee farming among smallholders in Embu County . The practices assessed included no-tillage, organic mulching, composting, and the use of Indigenous Microorganisms (IMOs). The study used a paired-plot design, comparing eco-friendly and conventional management within the same farms.

The results were striking. During the 2024/2025 main harvest, eco-friendly management increased coffee yield by an average of 1.12 kg per tree compared to conventional plots—a statistically significant gain . Disease suppression was even more dramatic. Coffee Berry Disease (CBD) incidence was reduced by 89 percent, and Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR) by 93 percent .

These disease reductions came with very large effect sizes (CBD d=2.24; CLR d=2.10), indicating that the ecological practices were not just marginally better but substantially superior . Importantly, input costs were comparable between the two systems, meaning the productivity and plant-health improvements were achieved without increasing production expenses .

The study suggests that early adopters gained more benefits over time, as soil biological processes stabilised and cumulative effects built up. The researchers recommend multi-season monitoring to confirm long-term stability, but the initial evidence is compelling: ecological farming is not just an idealistic alternative—it is a practical, cost-neutral method for boosting yields and suppressing disease .

Why This Matters for Farmers

For the average smallholder, the implication is practical. Adopting ecological practices—mulching, composting, no-tillage, and microbial inputs—can increase yields and significantly reduce the impact of CBD and CLR, two diseases that have devastated coffee production across Kenya. And because input costs are comparable, farmers do not need to invest more to get these benefits.

The Income Gap That Remains

Despite the positive developments, significant challenges remain. A 2025 study published by the European Commission’s Knowledge for Policy service analysed living income gaps among coffee smallholders in Nyeri and Murang’a counties . The findings were sobering:

• Coffee smallholders earn an average of only 109 KSh per day, just 35 percent of the 312 KSh living income benchmark.

• The income gap is particularly severe in Murang’a and among farmers with smaller landholdings.

• More than 90 percent of households fall below the living income benchmark.

Even under optimistic scenarios—doubling coffee prices, doubling yields, and increasing non-coffee income by 50 percent—the incidence of poverty would only drop to about 67 percent. This suggests that deep structural constraints in the local economy require a multidimensional approach: improved production efficiency, better and more stable prices, income diversification, and stronger institutional support .

The reforms and direct trade models are moving in the right direction, but they cannot solve the income gap alone. Farmers need additional income sources—off-farm work, other crops, livestock—and better access to finance and training.

What This Means for Farmers and Investors

Opportunity in New Regions

Laikipia’s expansion shows coffee can succeed outside traditional growing zones. Farmers in semi-arid areas with the right varieties (Batian, Ruiru 11) and proper management can enter the coffee sector. The key is access to quality seedlings and extension training—both of which are being scaled through government programmes .

Quality and Direct Markets

For farmers with well-managed farms, direct trade offers higher and more stable prices. Cooperatives that produce consistent, high-quality coffee can attract buyers like Trabocca and Rockbern, bypassing auction volatility . The challenge is cooperative governance—farmers must elect capable leaders and demand transparency.

Ecological Farming as a Productivity Tool

The Embu study provides evidence that ecological practices increase yields and suppress disease without raising costs . Farmers adopting these methods can reduce their reliance on expensive chemical inputs while improving outcomes—a practical win-win.

The Long-Term Picture

Kenyan coffee remains a globally recognised premium product, commanding up to 40 percent above the international average for Arabica due to its exceptional quality, altitude, and soil conditions . The European Union remains the main destination, but the U.S. has become the largest single-country buyer . Kenya has introduced traceability systems to comply with the EU Deforestation Regulation, which bars coffee sourced from land deforested after 2020—compliance deadlines are December 30, 2026, for larger exporters and June 30, 2027, for smaller firms .

The domestic market remains weak, with consumption projected flat at 62,000 bags in 2026/27 due to inflation, changing urban habits, and slower tourism . But the export outlook is stronger, with rising production and sustained international demand .

Practical Takeaways

Consider coffee in non-traditional areas. If you are in a semi-arid county like Laikipia or parts of the Rift Valley, coffee is not impossible—choose disease-resistant varieties like Batian or Ruiru 11, and ensure you have access to extension support .

Join a well-governed cooperative. Approximately 80 percent of Kenya’s coffee is sold through producer cooperatives . A cooperative with transparent leadership, good relationships with buyers, and membership in the Direct Settlement System is your best pathway to fair payments and market access.

Adopt ecological farming practices. The evidence from Embu is clear: composting, mulching, and microbial inputs increase yields and dramatically reduce disease . These practices cost no more than conventional methods and deliver better results.

Invest in quality. Direct buyers pay a premium for consistently high-quality coffee. Good pruning, proper harvesting (only ripe cherries), and careful processing are non-negotiable for accessing premium markets.

Diversify income. The living income studies show that coffee alone cannot lift most smallholders out of poverty. Combine coffee with other crops, livestock, or off-farm income to build resilience .

For farmers seeking certified coffee seedlings and expert orchard establishment advice, Organic Farm provides quality planting material and extension support:

Website: www.organicfarm.co.ke
Call or WhatsApp: +254712075915
Email: oxfarmorganic@gmail.com

Visit our website for detailed coffee production guides, current price updates, and information on our seedling catalogue for coffee-growing regions.