Just three months after farmers in Central Kenya were dumping tomatoes at record low prices, the market has swung dramatically in the opposite direction. An acute shortage has pushed prices to levels not seen in two years, with a 60kg crate now retailing at between Sh6,800 and Sh7,000.
The sharp increase marks a stunning reversal from January, when the same crate sold for as little as Sh1,000 during a crippling glut. For consumers, a kilogram of tomatoes now costs about Sh100, up from just Sh20 five months ago. Traders and shoppers alike are struggling to adjust.
At Wairia Market in Kenol, vegetable seller Daniel Mugambi said business has been severely disrupted by the price surge.
“I have not sold tomatoes at Sh100 per kilo in the last two years, but that is where we are now. We are buying them at very high prices, and sometimes they are not even available,” Mr. Mugambi said.
He noted that customers have reduced their purchases significantly. Many families that once bought tomatoes daily are now treating them as an occasional ingredient.
“Most customers are now buying only basic items. Tomatoes have suddenly become a luxury in many homes,” he added.
From losses to scarcity
The current crisis stands in sharp contrast to January, when farmers across Kirinyaga, Nyeri and Laikipia counties counted heavy losses from oversupply. During that period, Grade One tomatoes dropped to Sh1,000 per crate, while Grade Two sold for as little as Sh500. At the farm gate, prices fell further to between Sh300 and Sh500 per crate, well below production costs.
Kirinyaga farmer John Muthii had earlier described the devastation wrought by the glut.
“The cost of seeds, labour and irrigation was very high, but I could not even recover production costs. Some of the tomatoes ended up rotting or being fed to livestock, so I was not able to grow them again,” Mr. Muthii said.
Murang’a farmer Beatrice Wanjiku said buyers were scarce, and those who showed up offered unsustainable prices. Many growers lost money on transport and labour, with thousands of kilograms of ripe produce left unsold in the fields.
Seasonal patterns behind the shift
Agricultural experts now attribute the current shortage directly to the earlier glut. Low prices discouraged farmers from planting in subsequent cycles, creating a supply gap just as seasonal demand remained steady.
Soil analyst Bernard Ndung’u explained that the tomatoes flooding markets in January were planted around October and largely relied on rainfall, which resulted in the oversupply. With many farmers choosing not to replant after suffering losses, production volumes have dropped sharply.
Weather conditions have also played a role. Unpredictable rains in some growing zones have affected flowering and fruit development, further reducing harvests at a time when stocks are already low.
Outlook uncertain for coming weeks
Traders say the high prices show no immediate signs of easing. Wholesalers are scouring distant markets for supplies, but volumes remain limited. For consumers, the cost of a simple meal has risen noticeably, with tomatoes now accounting for a larger share of household vegetable budgets.
Farmers who did plant after the glut are hoping to cash in on the high prices. But agricultural observers warn that such extreme volatility discourages consistent investment in production. Without more stable market signals, cycles of glut followed by shortage are likely to continue, leaving both farmers and consumers vulnerable.
